Gaza expert predicts politics, public opinion will influence Hague court case

One hundred days ago, Hamas, the organization governing Gaza, launched a sophisticated, well-planned sneak attack against Israel. In all, some 1,200 Israelis were killed -- though it’s not clear whether friendly fire played a significant role in the bloodshed.

What is clear is the horror that’s unfolded since then. Israeli armed forces have killed more than 20,000 Palestinian civilians, most of them women and children. Hospitals, schools and refugee camps have been bombed. Survivors fled to southern Gaza, supposedly a ‘safe zone,’ but those areas were bombed, too. In addition, Israel cut off water, food, medicine, electricity and fuel to Gaza after the October 7th Hamas attack. Aid organizations report a humanitarian catastrophe as a result -- with rampant starvation and disease.

The situation in Gaza led South Africa to file a complaint with the International Court of Justice in The Hague -- charging Israel with genocide. Last week, both sides presented arguments to the 15-judge panel. South Africa’s immediate goal is to secure an injunction against further Israeli military action.

Norman Finkelstein, PhD is keeping an eye on the ICJ proceedings. Finkelstein, a political scientist, authored what is considered by some as a definitive account of the Palestinian’s plight. Gaza: An Inquest Into Its Martyrdom, has risen to the top of The New York Times bestseller list of books about the Middle East.

“South Africa made a strong case,” Finkelstein said. “And the job of the Israelis was not actually to disprove South Africa. Their job was to sow enough confusion as to cause doubt in the minds of the justices.”

Finkelstein believes ICJ decisions pass through three layers of consideration -- the least important of which is the facts and the law.

The next layer takes into account how a decision will be received.

“If they render an opinion that public opinion considers outrageous... then the court loses all credibility,” he said.

And finally, and most importantly, Finkelstein said, there is politics.

“These are judges, nominated by their countries, and they have to go back home one day,” he said. (ICJ justices serve a nine-year term.)

“Let’s take the case of Australia,” Finkelstein said. “Australia has a very powerful Jewish community. If the judge rules Israel is committing genocide, unless that judge plans not to return to Australia, but instead goes to Hawaii, that will be a career killer.”

Finkelstein said something like this happened about 15 years ago, when Richard Goldstone, a South African member of the ICJ issued what Finkelstein called a ‘scathing’ document accusing Israel of numerous war crimes. Some two years later, Goldstone, under intense pressure from the Jewish community back home, retracted his report -- fatally damaging his credibility.

For his part, Finkelstein believes Israel IS guilty of genocide in its latest campaign against the Palestinians.

“In order to show genocide you have to prove intent,” he said. “So here’s a simple question: if you deny a civilian population all food, all water, electricity and fuel, I think the intent can be easily inferred.”

And Finkelstein charged that Israel committing war crimes is nothing new.

“Periodically, you could say every two years, Israel launches a high-tech massacre on Gaza -- what they call mowing the lawn,” he said. “They destroy thousands of homes, kill hundreds of children, and kill thousands of others.”

Finkelstein’s expectation on the ICJ decision: a watered down affirmation of South Africa’s claim -- with minimal expectations put on Israel to change its operation in Gaza. In other words, he said, a slap on the wrist.

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