Sunny and cold Tuesday, storm developing for Thursday

FROM FOX 25 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST KEVIN LEMANOWICZ:

The latest model runs are coming in tonight, so here's an update to my earlier thinking. There is not much change.

The next couple of days will be mostly sunny and cold. There could be some ocean-effect snow flurries on Cape Cod, but nothing accumulating. Meanwhile, a storm system will be affecting the southeast with more ice and snow. Eventually, a more intense storm will emerge and move along the east coast. High pressure over us will slide to the east, forcing the storm to stay closer to southern New England.

A path like that would introduce some mild air into the system. That would mean snow would mix with or change to rain in part of the region, mostly likely southeastern MA and RI. The various computer models seem to be converging on that solution, though there is still some variation. Some come a little closer than others. As the track moves east or west, the bands of snow will move with it, as well as the mixing line. That is all still to be determined in the next few days.

You should prepare for a messy day Thursday with gusty winds. Snow for all to start early Thursday, but an icy mix to rain is likely. Stay tuned to the forecast updates as this storm still has to form and make a move. This is my latest thinking taking the various models into consideration, along with the atmospheric set-up to most likely be present ahead of the storm. Any variation in that set-up will change the forecast. Remember, an inch of rain becomes 10 inches of snow with just a small track change.

We will keep you update on the FOX 25 News, here at myfoxboston.com, or follow on twitter @klemanowicz.

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