The weather is quiet… for now.
Looks like we are going to make it three straight for weekend storms. Each has been different. The first was a blizzard for some and heavy snow for all. The next was moderate snow for the east coast and Cape Cod. This one will have a rain/snow line close to the immediate Boston area Sunday. That seriously complicates the forecast. Clearly, computer models are not going to be much help this far out on rain/snow. However, I see the track that is trending and can tell you how I see it based on that.
The storm comes off the mid-Atlantic coast and moves northward toward southern New England, eventually coming near Cape Cod or the Islands. That would introduce warm enough air all the way to Boston for mixing or just rain for a time. That would be on the front end of the storm. I'd expect areas north and west of route 128, approximately to be all snow. Closer to 128 would be heavy and wet, while farther out would be lighter and fluffier. Towns closest to 128 in the heavy, wet zone would have the highest potential for power outages, though I don't see this as a big problem with this storm. The storm will be pulling away Sunday, allowing cold air to come down the back side of it, changing rain in southeast MA to snow. Accumulations would be less in those areas.
Expect light snow and rain showers at times Saturday, with heavier rain and snow after 8 p.m. through midday Sunday.
Currently, we are thinking 4-5" in Boston to the South Shore, north of Plymouth, but up to 8" closer to 128 and I95. Beyond 128, 8-12" is a good forecast for now. There will be some fluffy piles beyond a foot, too.
You know it is three days out as I write this, so the track could change. I am confident there will be a storm forming, but that track varying 50 miles either way will drastically change the forecast because we are dealing with a rain/snow line. Keep checking back for updates.
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